After Saturday’s momentum-swinging (or so us Giants fans hoped) victory over the San Diego Padres, many people billed Tim Lincecum’s Sunday afternoon rubber match start as crucial, perhaps even the most important of his young career considering the ramifications that winning a series against the division-leading Padres would hold. Fans were tentatively cautious that our ace could go out and return to his Cy Young form, or at least get through six solid-ish innings without getting hit too hard.

But instead the above picture of him walking off the mound for good in the 4th inning tells the story. It is Lincecum, the back-to-back Cy Young winner, the one nicknamed “The Franchise,” heading back to the dugout with his head down after giving up six runs without getting through even four innings.

It’s definitely a cause for concern now. I know that Timmy and us Giants fans hold him to such high standards since he has performed so extraordinarily his first full years in the big leagues. And when he’s had starts that for most pitchers would be good but not fantastic, everyone’s asked, “What’s wrong with Lincecum?”

But after a string of lousy starts; after giving up four runs in the first inning of his last start for the first time in his career, then coming out today in a game against our biggest rivals right now and pitching so poorly, it’s fair for Giants fans to definitely be worried about our star player.

Many people have called KNBR locally and written on local blogs to speculate what Lincecum’s issue must be, and the theories range from “he must be hurt” to “he needs time off” to “he’s smoking too much dope” and “he’s not smoking enough dope” (of course the latter two theories aren’t shocking, coming from San Francisco, where people sell “Let Tim Smoke” t-shirts outside our stadium). I kind of feel wrong to put a firm diagnosis on Lincecum when I know nothing about baseball mechanics compared to guys like his father and team pitching coach Dave Righetti.

But I guess like everyone else, it’s fair game to talk about it and wonder. He’s definitely not the same pitcher that wowed the baseball world the past two years, that had experts who claimed his size would lead to a physical breakdown baffled and awed over his delivery. His velocity is down, he’s allowing a ton more walks and he can’t dig himself out of big innings.

What I want to believe is that it’s all mental; that Lincecum is, in a way, pulling a Zito, feeling the mental pressure of becoming one of the faces of the franchise, of having a large contract. I want to think that all he needs is a side session with his dad and maybe a couple days off, and he’ll be back to good ole’ Timmy.

At the same time, however, I can’t help but fear for the worst. I know the team wouldn’t be running Timmy out there if he were seriously hurt; I’m just concerned that he is physically worn out and won’t be able to regain the velocity on his fastball or his dominance on the mound back at all, let alone down the stretch the next couple months. I hope that this is something that he can work on in the offseason; that he just needs a better workout regiment or something. If you go back to the Zito comparison, he improved after a summer spent working out with Brian Wilson, and now that he’s relaxed mentally and separated himself from his $126 million dollar contract he’s become a better pitcher.

But hell, I really don’t know. If any of you guys who might’ve come across my blog want to comment with your theories, have at it; all I can hope is that Lincecum can turn it around soon, or else we’ll be missing the key of our pitching staff in the most crucial part of the season.

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A few random notes from this series…

1. Jonathan Sanchez had to put up or shut up, and after his predictably poor performance against San Diego on Friday, it’s time to leave the bold predictions to the fans. I’m glad he’s passionate, but it wasn’t appropriate for him to declare we would sweep the Padres after a bad start in Atlanta and considering his Jekyll-and-Hyde style of pitching, as I like to call it.

2. I am done with Aaron Rowand. In my preseason blog entry I predicted that Rowand would have a better average this season and that he’d be a crucial part of how the Giants did this year; boy, it looks like I was wrong. It’s so frustrating watching him come to the plate (whether in crucial at-bats or not) and either strike out or hit into a double play. Would I like to see him turn it around and be one of the veterans to help carry the team into September (and possibly beyond)? Of course, but not if it means taking playing time away from Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres or even Jose Guillen (even though his defense is shoddy). If he can pinch hit late in the game and start to get hits when it counts, maybe I can reconsider this stance; however at this rate I don’t even want to see him in those situations.

3. I’m okay with the Jose Guillen trade. It’s like picking up Pat Burrell–the other team is paying most of his contract to go away, and we traded away a very low prospect to get a proven bat. I was initially concerned about the whole “clubhouse cancer” moniker, but I agree with the fact that he’ll be happy and cooperate as long as we keep playing well and have a chance for the playoffs.

4. This next stretch of nine games is CRUCIAL. Three in Philadelphia, three in St. Louis and then three at home against the Reds. We NEED to have a .500 road trip, then come home and take two out of three from the Reds. After that we play two more series at home against the Diamondbacks and Rockies, the latter of which worries me a little more.

So let’s break down the remainder of August. If we have a 3-3 road trip, then come home and take 2/3 from the Reds, sweep Arizona and take 2/3 from the Rockies, that’s a 10-5 record to finish August. I’m probably being a little too optimistic to think we can win the series against the Reds, and maybe a .500 road trip is too hopeful, as well. But all I can do is keep my fingers crossed and remain very cautiously optimistic.